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Biometrika 1997 84(1):19-31; doi:10.1093/biomet/84.1.19
© 1997 by Biometrika Trust
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Bayesian methods for estimation of the size of a closed population

DAVID MADIGAN and JEREMY C. YORK

Department of Statistics, Box 354322, University of Washington Seattle, Washington 98195, U.S.A. e-mail: madigan{at}stat.washington.edu
Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories Battelle Boulevard, Richland, Washington 99352, U.S.A. e-mail: d3h785{at}sonata.pnl.gov

A Bayesian methodology for estimating the size of a closed population from multiple incomplete administrative lists is proposed. The approach allows for a variety of dependence structures between the lists, can make use of covariates, and explicitly accounts for model uncertainty. Interval estimates from this approach are compared to frequentist and previously published Bayesian approaches. Several examples are considered.

Key Words: Bayesian graphical model • Capture-recapture • Chordal graph • Closed population estimation • Contingency table • Decomposable log-linear model • Markov distribution


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