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Biometrika 1990 77(1):65-76;
© 1990 by Biometrika Trust
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Articles

Tail probabilities from observed likelihoods

D. A. S. FRASER

Department of Mathematics, York University North York, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada

Received for publication 1 December 1988. Revision received 1 June 1989.
   Abstract

An exponential model not in standard form is fully characterized by an observed likelihood function and its first sample space derivative, up to one-one transformations of the observable variable. This property is used to modify the Lugannani & Rice (1980) tail probability approximation to make it parameterization invariant. Then, for general continuous models a version of tangent exponential model is defined, and used to derive a general tail probability approximation that uses only the observed likelihood and its first sample-space derivative. The analysis extends from density functions to distribution functions the tangent exponential model methods of Fraser (1988). A related tail probability approximation has been reported (Barndorff-Nielsen, 1988b) in the discussion to Reid (1988).

Key Words: Barndorfi-Nielsen's formula • Conditional inference • Differential likelihood • Exponential family • Likelihood • Saddlepoint method • Tail probability • Tangent model


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