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Biometrika 1990 77(1):161-168;
© 1990 by Biometrika Trust
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Least-squares estimation of the contact rate in models for the spread of infectious diseases

C. R. HEATHCOTE and D. F. NICHOLLS

Department of Statistics, Australian National University Canberra, A. C. T. 2601, Australia

Received for publication 1 July 1988. Revision received 1 July 1989.
  Abstract

The contact rate and associated contact number determine the rate of spread of an infectious disease whose population dynamics are described by a mathematical model. It is shown how to obtain least-squares estimates of the contact rate for a standard homogeneous univariate model and a four-group model with different contact rates between the groups. The results of a small scale simulation are presented in the case of the four-group model. It is argued that the least-squares method provides generally acceptable estimates of contact rates for the range of parameter values likely to arise in epidemiological studies.

Key Words: Epidemiological model • Infectious disease • Least-squares estimation • Nonlinear time series


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