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Biometrika 1988 75(2):223-228; doi:10.1093/biomet/75.2.223
© 1988 by Biometrika Trust
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Inference for the binomial N parameter: A hierarchical Bayes approach

ADRIAN E. RAFTERY

Department of Statistics, University of Washington Seattle, Washington 98195, U.S.A.

A hierarchical Bayes approach to the problem of estimating N in the binomial distribution is presented. This provides a simple and flexible way of specifying prior information, and also allows a convenient representation of vague prior knowledge. It yields solutions to the problems of interval estimation, prediction and decision making, as well as that of point estimation. The Bayes estimator compares favourably with the best, previously proposed', point estimators in the literature.

Key Words: Bayes estimator • Decision making • Highest posterior density region • Population size estimation • Prediction • Vague prior


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