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Biometrika 1981 68(1):197-210; doi:10.1093/biomet/68.1.197
© 1981 by Biometrika Trust
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A Bayesian analysis of multiple-recapture sampling for a closed population

B. J. CASTLEDINE *

This paper considers from a Bayesian viewpoint inferences about the size of a closed animal population from data obtained by a multiple-recapture sampling scheme. The method developed enables prior information about the population size and the catch probabilities to be utilized to produce considerable improvements in certain cases on ordinary maximum likelihood methods. Several ways of expressing such prior information are explored and a practical example of the uses of these ways is given. The main result of the paper is an approximation to the posterior distribution of sample size that exhibits the contributions made by the likelihood and the prior ideas.

Key Words: Bayesian inference • Closed population • Estimation of population size • Exchangeable catch probabilities • Multiple-recapture sampling



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