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Biometrika 1975 62(2):503-517; doi:10.1093/biomet/62.2.503
© 1975 by Biometrika Trust
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Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXXIV

Napoleonic statistics: The work of Laplace

STEPHEN M. STIGLER

Deprtment of Statistics, University of Wisconsin Madison

The work of Pierre Simon, Marquis de Laplace, was more important to the early development of mathematical statistics than that of any other individual. This paper reviews both his major contributions to statistical theory, and his application of this theory to scientific problems. These applications paradoxically reveal both surprising depth and unexpected limitations to his understanding of statistical concepts. Two of Laplace's investigations are examined in detail. The first of these is a solution of a multiple regression problem arising in an astronomical problem he solved in 1787. Secondly, a meteorological investigation Laplace made in 1823 md 1827 is discussed, and his methods of dealing with a multiple regression problem with correlated observations and with a multiple comparison problem are explained.

Key Words: Bayes • Correlation • History of statistics • Laplace • Power • Regression • Significance test


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