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Biometrika 1974 61(2):271-275; doi:10.1093/biomet/61.2.271
© 1974 by Biometrika Trust
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A note on supercritical carrier-borne epidemics

ANDRIS ABAKUKS

Department of Statistics, Birkbeck College London

The behaviour of Downton's carrier-borne epidemic is considered when the initial number of susceptibles {xi}is large. For large enough{xi}, the survivor distribution is U-shaped. A system which approximates the behaviour of the epidemic is proposed, and the expected number of survivors is considered as {xi} tends to infinity.

Key Words: Approximating system • Carrier-borne epidemic • Expected number of survivors • Survivor distribution


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