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Biometrika 1972 59(2):407-414; doi:10.1093/biomet/59.2.407
© 1972 by Biometrika Trust
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Choice of initial states in estimating transition probabilities of a finite ergodic Markov chain

B. R. HANDA *

Imperial College London

The properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the transition probabilities in a two-state ergodic Markov chain depend upon the choice of the initial states. For example, the initial states may be suitably fixed in advance or may be observed from the equilibrium distribution of the chain. A large number of relatively short realizations are assumed available and the asymptotic variances are examined in some detail. The relevant asymptotic covariance matrices are derived also for the s-state chain.

Key Words: Inference in finite Markov chains • Asymptotic maximum likelihood theory • Sampling rules



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