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Biometrika 1971 58(3):491-497; doi:10.1093/biomet/58.3.491
© 1971 by Biometrika Trust
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Estimating age-specific survival rates from bird-band returns when the reporting rate is constant

G. A. F. SEBER*

Auckland University
*Now at Otago University New Zealand

A probability model consisting of a product of multinomial distributions is derived for a bird-banding experiment in which a new batch of nestlings is banded and released at the beginning of each year and the bands from the dead birds are returned by observers in subsequent years. The annual reporting probability is assumed to be the same for all birds and to remain constant from year to year, while the probability of survival is assumed to depend on the age of the bird rather than on the calendar year. By considering the probability distribution of band returns conditional on the total numbers of returns from each release, explicit maximum likelihood estimates of the survival probabilities are obtained together with their asymptotic variance-covariance matrix. A goodness-of-fit test of the model is outlined and the theory is demonstrated by a worked example.

Key Words: Estimation of age-specific survival rates • Conditional maximum likelihood • Constrained maximization • Ornithological applications


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