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Biometrika 1970 57(1):141-153; doi:10.1093/biomet/57.1.141
© 1970 by Biometrika Trust
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Improvements in the estimation of the latent and infectious periods of a contagious disease

NORMAN T. J. BAILEY and CYNTHIA ALFF-STEINBERGER

World Health Organization Geneva

The contagious disease model proposed by Bailey (1956a, b) predicts the frequency distribution of time intervals between the appearance of subsequent cases. Using data from households of two or three susceptibles into which a disease, measles, had been introduced, Bailey used a maximum likelihood procedure to determine various disease parameters, for example, length of the latent and infectious periods. In the original calculations, a desk calculator scoring procedure was used to maximize the likelihood. The present paper describes the application of a computer maximization technique to this problem. The computation is of course more rapid and the use of a computer permits the automatic determination of starting points for the computation, the calculation of goodness of fit X2 and facilitates variations of the model, such as the addition of an extra parameter to allow for the mis-classification of chains. The methods recommended are illustrated both by the previous measles data and by new data on infectious hepatitis.


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