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Biometrika 1967 54(1-2):314-316; doi:10.1093/biomet/54.1-2.314
© 1967 by Biometrika Trust
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MISCELLANEA

A note on the ultimate size of a general stochastic epidemic

F. DOWNTON

University of Birmingham

A relation between the probability that an epidemic in a population of size {xi}ends with X sueceptibles remaining uninfected, and the probability that a different epidemic in a population of size {xi}–a ends with X–a uninfected susceptibles is proved by a probabilistic argument. This relation, due to Daniels (1966). is then used to obtain a formal expression for these probabilities without recourse to the usual backward or forward equations.


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